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Monthly Budget Review: June 2024

Monthly Budget Review: June 2024

The federal budget deficit was $1.3 trillion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$118 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues were $342 billion (or 10 percent) higher and outlays were $225 billion (or 5 percent) higher from October through June than during the same period in fiscal year 2023.

Shifts in the timing of certain payments affect that comparison. Outlays in the first nine months of each fiscal year were reduced by shifts of some payments to September that otherwise would have been due on October 1, which fell on a weekend in both years. In addition, July 1, 2023, fell on a Saturday, so outlays in the first nine months of 2023 were boosted by the shifting of payments into June 2023. If not for those timing shifts, the deficit so far in fiscal year 2024 would have been $22 billion smaller than the shortfall for the same period in fiscal year 2023.

CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2024, which would be larger than the 2023 deficit of $1.7 trillion. When adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of certain payments, the projected 2024 deficit comes to $2.0 trillion. Some costs that have not yet been recorded contribute to CBO’s larger deficit projection for 2024, including the outlays that the Administration might record for cancellations of student loan debt resulting from a proposed rule published in April and some outlays stemming from legislation providing assistance to Israel, Ukraine, and countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

Originally published at https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60361

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